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Italy

Serie A Predictions

Italy · season 2026-27 · 20 clubs

Serie A predictions by our AI, every matchday. Italy remains the home of goal lines: organised blocks, tactical endgames and stark contrasts between front-foot sides and 1-0 specialists. Our xG-fed Dixon-Coles model estimates 1X2 and Over/Under probabilities before every game — historically one of the strongest 1X2 leagues in our coverage, as our public journal shows — with standings, scorers, most likely correct score and a written analysis per fixture.

3,18
goals / match
61 %
matches over 2.5
58 %
BTTS matches
3,4
cards / match
9,6
corners / match
100
matches played · season 2026-27

Upcoming analysed matches

Latest results

02/11US Sassuolo — ACF Fiorentina2–4
02/11Atalanta BC — Parma Calcio0–3
01/11US Lecce — Genoa CFC1–2
01/11SS Lazio — Cagliari Calcio2–1
01/11Juventus — SSC Napoli2–0
01/11Frosinone Calcio — Torino FC2–0
01/11Como 1907 — Venezia FC1–0
31/10Udinese Calcio — AS Roma2–5
31/10Bologna FC — AC Monza2–1
31/10AC Milan — Inter Milan3–1

Top scorers

season 2026-27
1 Lautaro MartínezInter Milan 17 goals 6 assists
2 D. MalenAS Roma 14 goals 2 assists
3 T. DouvikasComo 1907 14 goals 1 assists
4 M. ThuramInter Milan 13 goals 6 assists
5 N. PazComo 1907 12 goals 6 assists

Standings

season 2026-27
#ClubPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 SS Lazio 10910 248+16 28 WWWWW
2 Inter Milan 10811 2613+13 25 WWWWL
3 AS Roma 10730 2810+18 24 DWDWW
4 Como 1907 10721 188+10 23 DWWWW
5 AC Milan 10631 2112+9 21 DWWLW
6 Frosinone Calcio 10622 2414+10 20 LWDWW
7 Juventus 10523 1310+3 17 DLWLW
8 SSC Napoli 10424 1713+4 14 WLDWL
9 Bologna FC 10424 1413+1 14 WLWWW
10 Torino FC 10415 1416-2 13 WWWLL
11 Genoa CFC 10415 1014-4 13 WLWWW
12 Cagliari Calcio 10415 915-6 13 DLLLL
13 Atalanta BC 10325 1620-4 11 WLDDL
14 US Lecce 10307 1121-10 9 LWLLL
15 Parma Calcio 10226 815-7 8 LLLDW
16 ACF Fiorentina 10226 1523-8 8 LLLDW
17 US Sassuolo 10226 1626-10 8 DLLLL
18 AC Monza 10217 1724-7 7 LWLLL
19 Udinese Calcio 10127 1123-12 5 LLLDL
20 Venezia FC 10109 620-14 3 LWLLL
European spots Relegation Zones indicative — play-offs and relegation play-outs not detailed.

What our model is really worth on this league

Our engine (Dixon-Coles) runs under observation: calls stay "AI Trends" until the return is proven in live conditions — every trend is timestamped, settled against the final score and counted below, never dressed up. The line-by-line detail is public: trends journal.

Match result (1X2)
sample still building
26 trends evaluated
Over/Under 2.5
sample still building
20 trends evaluated

Latest settled trends

Published before kick-off, settled as-is — wins and losses alike.

02/11 US Sassuolo – ACF Fiorentina btts_yes @ 1,50 ✓
02/11 Atalanta BC – Parma Calcio btts_yes @ 1,80 ✗
02/11 US Sassuolo – ACF Fiorentina under35 @ 1,64 ✗
02/11 US Sassuolo – ACF Fiorentina over15 @ 1,19 ✓
02/11 US Sassuolo – ACF Fiorentina dnb_away @ 1,75 ✓
02/11 US Sassuolo – ACF Fiorentina dc_12 @ 1,31 ✓

Frequently asked questions

Which markets are covered?

1X2 (match result) and Over/Under 2.5 goals on every covered match, plus the most likely correct scores. Every prediction is timestamped, then settled against the closing odds in our public journal — wins and losses alike.

When are predictions published?

Model probabilities are computed up to 7 days ahead and refreshed several times a day as odds move. The written analysis of each match is published before kick-off.

Are Serie A predictions free?

Yes. The analysis of each match and the model probabilities are free. The detailed recommendation (market, odds and value) is reserved for subscribers.

How are these predictions generated?

By our AI model (Dixon-Coles + xG), recomputed before each match from recent form, team statistics and market odds, to estimate 1X2 and Over/Under probabilities and spot value.

Does ProbWin cover every Serie A match?

We publish analysis and model probabilities for Serie A matches as soon as the data (likely lineups, odds, recent form) is available, throughout the season.

Where can I see the Serie A table and stats?

On this page: full standings, recent form, top scorers and Serie A scoring averages, shown alongside the model's probabilities for each match.

All our predictions: football. To understand the method behind our predictions, see how our AI works.

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