Game totals (FT)
Official only when the model states ≥56% — the zone where its hit rate is proven over two backtest seasons. Below that, the read is published as a trend.
AI Trends Journal — MLB
An AI trend is a model signal that doesn't meet every requirement of an official pick: confidence below the validated threshold, unconfirmed pitchers, or a zone still under observation. We publish all of them, frozen at pick time with their stated probability, and settle them against the final score — won or lost. This is our public proving ground: once a zone shows over time that “stated X% = realized X%” at a paying price, it graduates to official.
Why is a trend not an official pick?
First-5 (F5)
Baseball's noisiest market (≈5 runs average, ±3.3 SD): our F5 model is still being stabilized — everything stays a trend for now.
Run line (±1.5)
Official inside the two-season-validated 53-60% confidence zone, with confirmed pitchers and a price that pays the probability. Very high confidences (60%+) are under observation: they win often… at prices that don't always pay.
First inning (NRFI/YRFI)
New engine (July 2026), very well calibrated in backtest — but no zone has yet proven a net profit at real prices across two seasons. Everything is published as a trend, settled nightly, and the zone goes official only if live results confirm.
Live calibration — stated vs realized (last 30 days)
How to read these tables: an honest model must realize what it states — if it says 56%, it should win ~56% of the time. Since June 2026 we have publicly tracked every trend of our historical model — and that tracking showed it stated more than it delivered, the more so the more “confident” it claimed to be (“Historical model” tables, broken down market by market: a model can be right on totals and wrong on the run line). Those lessons fed a progressive overhaul of our models: four seasons of consolidated data, calibration validated over two full backtest seasons. The “New generation” tables track each engine day by day under the same rule — you watch their calibration build live, unfiltered and untouched.
Historical model — Run line
| Stated confidence | Settled trends | Stated (avg) | Realized | Avg odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| < 53% | 17 | 48,6% | 76,5% | @ 1,71 |
| 56-60% | 44 | 58,8% | 61,4% | @ 1,67 |
| ≥ 60% | 37 | 65,1% | 70,3% | @ 1,59 |
New generation — Game total
| Stated confidence | Settled trends | Stated (avg) | Realized | Avg odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 53-56% | 19 | 53,5% | 52,6% | @ 1,92 |
New generation — First-5 total
| Stated confidence | Settled trends | Stated (avg) | Realized | Avg odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 53-56% | 23 | 53,5% | 47,8% | @ 1,89 |
New generation — Run line
| Stated confidence | Settled trends | Stated (avg) | Realized | Avg odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 53-56% | 11 | 54,5% | 72,7% | @ 1,89 |
| 56-60% | 23 | 58,1% | 47,8% | @ 1,63 |
| ≥ 60% | 66 | 64,4% | 69,7% | @ 1,66 |
New generation — First inning (NRFI/YRFI)
| Stated confidence | Settled trends | Stated (avg) | Realized | Avg odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 53-56% | 79 | 54,3% | 41,8% | @ 1,86 |
| 56-60% | 61 | 57,4% | 52,5% | @ 1,83 |
| ≥ 60% | 19 | 62,0% | 52,6% | @ 1,74 |
| Date | Game | Market | Trend | Stated prob. | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/09 | CIN @ LAD3–6 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Aucun run en 1ʳᵉ manche (NRFI) | 56,3% | @ 1,86 | Lost |
| 07/09 | CHC @ MIL3–4 | RLRun line | CHC +1.5 | 63,6% | @ 1,53 | Won |
| 07/09 | MIN @ DET4–5 | RLRun line | MIN +1.5 | 65,4% | @ 1,51 | Won |
| 07/09 | LAA @ BOS2–5 | RLRun line | LAA +1.5 | 57,0% | @ 1,74 | Lost |
| 07/09 | WSN @ SDP2–3 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Au moins 1 run en 1ʳᵉ manche (YRFI) | 53,6% | @ 1,93 | Won |
| 07/09 | MIN @ DET4–5 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Aucun run en 1ʳᵉ manche (NRFI) | 55,0% | @ 1,76 | Lost |
| 07/09 | LAA @ BOS2–5 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Au moins 1 run en 1ʳᵉ manche (YRFI) | 56,2% | @ 1,99 | Lost |
| 07/09 | TOR @ OAK5–6 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Aucun run en 1ʳᵉ manche (NRFI) | 59,3% | @ 1,76 | Lost |
| 07/09 | ATL @ PHI0–1 | IARun line | ATL +1.5 | 58,8% | @ 1,75 | Won |
| 07/09 | MIN @ DET4–5 | IARun line | MIN +1.5 | 64,0% | @ 1,50 | Won |
| 07/09 | LAA @ BOS2–5 | IARun line | LAA +1.5 | 58,8% | @ 1,74 | Lost |
| 06/09 | TBR @ TEX6–8 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Aucun run en 1ʳᵉ manche (NRFI) | 55,8% | @ 1,75 | Won |
| 06/09 | OAK @ SEA0–2 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Aucun run en 1ʳᵉ manche (NRFI) | 56,4% | @ 1,88 | Won |
| 06/09 | NYY @ SDP3–4 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Aucun run en 1ʳᵉ manche (NRFI) | 56,3% | @ 1,63 | Lost |
| 06/09 | LAA @ PIT0–1 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Aucun run en 1ʳᵉ manche (NRFI) | 60,1% | @ 1,86 | Won |
| 06/09 | SFG @ NYM2–4 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Aucun run en 1ʳᵉ manche (NRFI) | 55,1% | @ 1,89 | Won |
| 06/09 | CHC @ MIA3–10 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Au moins 1 run en 1ʳᵉ manche (YRFI) | 53,4% | @ 1,97 | Lost |
| 06/09 | WSN @ LAD5–7 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Aucun run en 1ʳᵉ manche (NRFI) | 54,3% | @ 1,88 | Won |
| 06/09 | BOS @ BAL3–1 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Aucun run en 1ʳᵉ manche (NRFI) | 54,7% | @ 1,83 | Lost |
| 06/09 | SFG @ NYM2–4 | RLRun line | SFG +1.5 | 58,7% | @ 1,68 | Lost |
| 06/09 | CHC @ MIA3–10 | RLRun line | MIA +1.5 | 64,7% | @ 1,75 | Won |
| 06/09 | DET @ CLE2–3 | RLRun line | DET +1.5 | 61,7% | @ 1,65 | Won |
| 06/09 | MIN @ CHW1–10 | RLRun line | MIN +1.5 | 58,4% | @ 1,61 | Lost |
| 06/09 | TOR @ KCR1–6 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Au moins 1 run en 1ʳᵉ manche (YRFI) | 59,8% | @ 1,86 | Won |
| 06/09 | LAA @ PIT0–1 | IARun line | LAA +1.5 | 52,6% | @ 1,70 | Won |
| 06/09 | SFG @ NYM2–4 | IARun line | SFG +1.5 | 58,8% | @ 1,68 | Lost |
| 06/09 | CHC @ MIA3–10 | IARun line | MIA +1.5 | 58,8% | @ 1,71 | Won |
| 05/09 | TBR @ TEX6–3 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Aucun run en 1ʳᵉ manche (NRFI) | 60,3% | @ 1,66 | Lost |
| 05/09 | OAK @ SEA6–2 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Au moins 1 run en 1ʳᵉ manche (YRFI) | 57,5% | @ 1,95 | Lost |
| 05/09 | LAA @ PIT6–1 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Aucun run en 1ʳᵉ manche (NRFI) | 56,2% | @ 1,82 | Won |
| 05/09 | ATL @ PHI2–4 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Aucun run en 1ʳᵉ manche (NRFI) | 53,5% | @ 1,85 | Lost |
| 05/09 | SFG @ NYM9–5 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Au moins 1 run en 1ʳᵉ manche (YRFI) | 57,6% | @ 1,93 | Won |
| 05/09 | WSN @ LAD5–6 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Aucun run en 1ʳᵉ manche (NRFI) | 60,3% | @ 1,66 | Lost |
| 05/09 | TOR @ KCR4–3 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Au moins 1 run en 1ʳᵉ manche (YRFI) | 65,2% | @ 1,79 | Won |
| 05/09 | DET @ CLE6–0 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Aucun run en 1ʳᵉ manche (NRFI) | 56,2% | @ 1,75 | Lost |
| 05/09 | MIL @ CIN3–5 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Au moins 1 run en 1ʳᵉ manche (YRFI) | 53,2% | @ 1,90 | Won |
| 05/09 | STL @ COL7–10 | FTGame total | Under 11.0 | 53,0% | @ 1,87 | Lost |
| 05/09 | SFG @ NYM9–5 | F5First-5 total | Under 4.5 | 53,1% | @ 1,88 | Lost |
| 05/09 | DET @ CLE6–0 | F5First-5 total | Under 3.5 | 53,1% | @ 1,95 | Won |
| 05/09 | TBR @ TEX6–3 | RLRun line | TBR +1.5 | 58,9% | @ 1,42 | Won |
| 05/09 | LAA @ PIT6–1 | RLRun line | LAA +1.5 | 57,0% | @ 1,74 | Won |
| 05/09 | SFG @ NYM9–5 | RLRun line | SFG +1.5 | 53,2% | @ 1,68 | Won |
| 05/09 | CHC @ MIA6–5 | RLRun line | MIA +1.5 | 64,9% | @ 1,67 | Won |
| 05/09 | ARI @ HOU4–3 | RLRun line | HOU -1.5 | 62,5% | @ 2,93 | Lost |
| 05/09 | STL @ COL7–10 | RLRun line | COL +1.5 | 75,6% | @ 1,72 | Won |
| 05/09 | DET @ CLE6–0 | RLRun line | DET +1.5 | 61,2% | @ 1,61 | Won |
| 05/09 | MIN @ CHW6–4 | RLRun line | MIN +1.5 | 63,1% | @ 1,50 | Won |
| 05/09 | MIN @ CHW6–4 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Au moins 1 run en 1ʳᵉ manche (YRFI) | 53,1% | @ 2,02 | Won |
| 05/09 | TBR @ TEX6–3 | IARun line | TBR +1.5 | 73,5% | @ 1,43 | Won |
| 05/09 | LAA @ PIT6–1 | IARun line | LAA +1.5 | 41,2% | @ 1,74 | Won |
| 05/09 | SFG @ NYM9–5 | IARun line | SFG +1.5 | 58,8% | @ 1,69 | Won |
| 05/09 | CHC @ MIA6–5 | IARun line | MIA +1.5 | 63,4% | @ 1,67 | Won |
| 05/09 | ARI @ HOU4–3 | IARun line | ARI +1.5 | 73,5% | @ 1,45 | Won |
| 05/09 | STL @ COL7–10 | IARun line | COL +1.5 | 58,8% | @ 1,72 | Won |
| 05/09 | MIN @ CHW6–4 | IARun line | MIN +1.5 | 64,0% | @ 1,51 | Won |
| 04/09 | OAK @ SEA7–6 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Au moins 1 run en 1ʳᵉ manche (YRFI) | 53,5% | @ 2,05 | Lost |
| 04/09 | NYY @ SDP2–3 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Aucun run en 1ʳᵉ manche (NRFI) | 54,2% | @ 1,75 | Won |
| 04/09 | ATL @ PHI5–2 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Aucun run en 1ʳᵉ manche (NRFI) | 67,9% | @ 1,61 | Won |
| 04/09 | SFG @ NYM6–10 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Aucun run en 1ʳᵉ manche (NRFI) | 54,8% | @ 1,79 | Lost |
| 04/09 | TOR @ KCR9–2 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Au moins 1 run en 1ʳᵉ manche (YRFI) | 60,7% | @ 1,71 | Won |
| 04/09 | ARI @ HOU1–3 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Au moins 1 run en 1ʳᵉ manche (YRFI) | 53,8% | @ 1,84 | Lost |
| 04/09 | STL @ COL7–6 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Au moins 1 run en 1ʳᵉ manche (YRFI) | 57,7% | @ 1,67 | Won |
| 04/09 | DET @ CLE3–4 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Aucun run en 1ʳᵉ manche (NRFI) | 53,8% | @ 1,81 | Won |
| 04/09 | DET @ CLE6–7 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Aucun run en 1ʳᵉ manche (NRFI) | 53,8% | @ 1,91 | Lost |
| 04/09 | MIL @ CIN10–7 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Au moins 1 run en 1ʳᵉ manche (YRFI) | 55,6% | @ 1,81 | Won |
| 04/09 | BOS @ BAL1–0 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Aucun run en 1ʳᵉ manche (NRFI) | 53,8% | @ 1,79 | Lost |
| 04/09 | WSN @ LAD3–5 | FTGame total | Under 8.5 | 53,5% | @ 1,88 | Won |
| 04/09 | BOS @ BAL1–0 | F5First-5 total | Under 4.5 | 53,0% | @ 1,86 | Won |
| 04/09 | TBR @ TEX7–6 | RLRun line | TEX +1.5 | 65,3% | @ 1,56 | Won |
| 04/09 | NYY @ SDP2–3 | RLRun line | SDP +1.5 | 60,3% | @ 1,61 | Won |
| 04/09 | ATL @ PHI5–2 | RLRun line | ATL +1.5 | 61,0% | @ 1,43 | Won |
| 04/09 | SFG @ NYM6–10 | RLRun line | SFG +1.5 | 58,5% | @ 1,77 | Lost |
| 04/09 | CHC @ MIA6–1 | RLRun line | MIA +1.5 | 66,4% | @ 1,79 | Lost |
| 04/09 | TOR @ KCR9–2 | RLRun line | TOR +1.5 | 63,3% | @ 1,52 | Won |
| 04/09 | ARI @ HOU1–3 | RLRun line | ARI +1.5 | 57,7% | @ 1,57 | Lost |
| 04/09 | DET @ CLE3–4 | RLRun line | DET +1.5 | 61,4% | @ 1,55 | Won |
| 04/09 | MIN @ CHW1–4 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Au moins 1 run en 1ʳᵉ manche (YRFI) | 59,2% | @ 1,79 | Won |
| 04/09 | TBR @ TEX7–6 | IARun line | TEX +1.5 | 58,8% | @ 1,56 | Won |
| 04/09 | NYY @ SDP2–3 | IARun line | SDP +1.5 | 58,8% | @ 1,58 | Won |
| 04/09 | ATL @ PHI5–2 | IARun line | ATL +1.5 | 68,0% | @ 1,45 | Won |
| 04/09 | SFG @ NYM6–10 | IARun line | NYM -1.5 | 50,0% | @ 2,07 | Won |
| 04/09 | CHC @ MIA6–1 | IARun line | MIA +1.5 | 52,6% | @ 1,86 | Lost |
| 04/09 | TOR @ KCR9–2 | IARun line | TOR +1.5 | 47,4% | @ 1,51 | Won |
| 04/09 | ARI @ HOU1–3 | IARun line | ARI +1.5 | 58,8% | @ 1,54 | Lost |
| 03/09 | OAK @ SEA7–4 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Aucun run en 1ʳᵉ manche (NRFI) | 54,7% | @ 1,76 | Lost |
| 03/09 | SFG @ PIT2–5 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Au moins 1 run en 1ʳᵉ manche (YRFI) | 55,6% | — | Won |
| 03/09 | STL @ LAD2–3 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Aucun run en 1ʳᵉ manche (NRFI) | 56,0% | @ 1,76 | Lost |
| 03/09 | MIL @ CHC1–2 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Aucun run en 1ʳᵉ manche (NRFI) | 56,4% | @ 1,88 | Won |
| 03/09 | STL @ LAD2–3 | FTGame total | Under 8.0 | 53,6% | @ 1,89 | Won |
| 03/09 | CHW @ HOU2–6 | F5First-5 total | Under 4.5 | 53,4% | @ 1,94 | Lost |
| 03/09 | BOS @ BAL6–5 | F5First-5 total | Under 4.5 | 54,7% | @ 1,87 | Won |
| 03/09 | SFG @ PIT2–5 | RLRun line | SFG +1.5 | 57,3% | @ 1,71 | Lost |
| 03/09 | MIL @ CHC1–2 | RLRun line | CHC +1.5 | 67,7% | @ 1,60 | Won |
| 03/09 | TBR @ TEX0–6 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Aucun run en 1ʳᵉ manche (NRFI) | 54,1% | @ 1,77 | Won |
| 03/09 | SFG @ PIT2–5 | IARun line | SFG +1.5 | 58,8% | @ 1,71 | Lost |
| 02/09 | NYM @ TBR10–4 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Aucun run en 1ʳᵉ manche (NRFI) | 57,6% | @ 1,95 | Lost |
| 02/09 | STL @ LAD8–6 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Aucun run en 1ʳᵉ manche (NRFI) | 56,1% | @ 1,85 | Lost |
| 02/09 | NYY @ LAA6–3 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Aucun run en 1ʳᵉ manche (NRFI) | 65,1% | @ 1,59 | Won |
| 02/09 | MIA @ KCR9–6 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Aucun run en 1ʳᵉ manche (NRFI) | 56,5% | @ 1,83 | Lost |
| 02/09 | BAL @ COL5–6 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Au moins 1 run en 1ʳᵉ manche (YRFI) | 56,8% | @ 1,65 | Lost |
| 02/09 | TOR @ CLE11–0 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Aucun run en 1ʳᵉ manche (NRFI) | 59,8% | @ 1,68 | Lost |
| 02/09 | SDP @ CIN3–7 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Au moins 1 run en 1ʳᵉ manche (YRFI) | 53,8% | @ 1,84 | Won |
| 02/09 | MIL @ CHC9–5 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Aucun run en 1ʳᵉ manche (NRFI) | 59,5% | @ 1,83 | Lost |
| 02/09 | PHI @ ARI0–1 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Au moins 1 run en 1ʳᵉ manche (YRFI) | 56,6% | @ 1,81 | Lost |
| 02/09 | NYM @ TBR10–4 | FTGame total | Under 8.0 | 53,0% | @ 1,96 | Lost |
| 02/09 | DET @ MIN11–6 | F5First-5 total | Under 4.5 | 53,1% | @ 1,93 | Lost |
| 02/09 | MIA @ KCR9–6 | F5First-5 total | Under 4.5 | 53,5% | @ 1,89 | Lost |
| 02/09 | SEA @ BOS8–3 | F5First-5 total | Under 4.5 | 53,6% | @ 1,88 | Lost |
| 02/09 | NYM @ TBR10–4 | RLRun line | NYM +1.5 | 54,8% | @ 1,71 | Won |
| 02/09 | SFG @ PIT5–4 | RLRun line | SFG +1.5 | 58,5% | @ 1,63 | Won |
| 02/09 | NYY @ LAA6–3 | RLRun line | LAA +1.5 | 60,9% | @ 1,77 | Lost |
| 02/09 | CHW @ HOU0–2 | RLRun line | CHW +1.5 | 56,6% | @ 1,57 | Lost |
| 02/09 | SEA @ BOS8–3 | RLRun line | SEA +1.5 | 55,1% | @ 1,57 | Won |
| 02/09 | PHI @ ARI0–1 | RLRun line | ARI +1.5 | 65,4% | @ 1,71 | Won |
| 02/09 | OAK @ TEX9–2 | IARun line | OAK +1.5 | 58,8% | @ 1,65 | Won |
| 02/09 | NYM @ TBR10–4 | IARun line | NYM +1.5 | 58,8% | @ 1,75 | Won |
| 02/09 | SFG @ PIT5–4 | IARun line | SFG +1.5 | 63,4% | @ 1,65 | Won |
| 02/09 | NYY @ LAA6–3 | IARun line | LAA +1.5 | 58,8% | @ 1,79 | Lost |
| 02/09 | CHW @ HOU0–2 | IARun line | CHW +1.5 | 64,0% | @ 1,59 | Lost |
| 02/09 | TOR @ CLE11–0 | IARun line | CLE +1.5 | 64,0% | @ 1,66 | Lost |
Frequently asked questions
What is the “stated probability”?
The calibrated probability the model gave its trend at pick time. Our transparency commitment: over time, a zone stated at 56% must win ~56% of the time — this page lets you verify it.
Why publish losing trends?
Because a complete record is the only honest one. Every trend is frozen at pick time and settled against the final score, no filtering.
When does a trend become an official pick?
When its confidence zone has proven — in a two-season backtest AND live — that the stated rate is realized at a price that pays it. Official MLB picks follow those validated zones.
