Game totals (FT)
Official only when the model states ≥56% — the zone where its hit rate is proven over two backtest seasons. Below that, the read is published as a trend.
AI Trends Journal — MLB
An AI trend is a model signal that doesn't meet every requirement of an official pick: confidence below the validated threshold, unconfirmed pitchers, or a zone still under observation. We publish all of them, frozen at pick time with their stated probability, and settle them against the final score — won or lost. This is our public proving ground: once a zone shows over time that “stated X% = realized X%” at a paying price, it graduates to official.
Why is a trend not an official pick?
First-5 (F5)
Baseball's noisiest market (≈5 runs average, ±3.3 SD): our F5 model is still being stabilized — everything stays a trend for now.
Run line (±1.5)
Official inside the two-season-validated 53-60% confidence zone, with confirmed pitchers and a price that pays the probability. Very high confidences (60%+) are under observation: they win often… at prices that don't always pay.
First inning (NRFI/YRFI)
New engine (July 2026), very well calibrated in backtest — but no zone has yet proven a net profit at real prices across two seasons. Everything is published as a trend, settled nightly, and the zone goes official only if live results confirm.
Live calibration — stated vs realized (last 30 days)
How to read these tables: an honest model must realize what it states — if it says 56%, it should win ~56% of the time. Since June 2026 we have publicly tracked every trend of our historical model — and that tracking showed it stated more than it delivered, the more so the more “confident” it claimed to be (“Historical model” tables, broken down market by market: a model can be right on totals and wrong on the run line). Those lessons fed a progressive overhaul of our models: four seasons of consolidated data, calibration validated over two full backtest seasons. The “New generation” tables track each engine day by day under the same rule — you watch their calibration build live, unfiltered and untouched.
Historical model — Run line
| Stated confidence | Settled trends | Stated (avg) | Realized | Avg odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| < 53% | 17 | 48,6% | 76,5% | @ 1,71 |
| 56-60% | 44 | 58,8% | 61,4% | @ 1,67 |
| ≥ 60% | 37 | 65,1% | 70,3% | @ 1,59 |
New generation — Game total
| Stated confidence | Settled trends | Stated (avg) | Realized | Avg odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 53-56% | 19 | 53,5% | 52,6% | @ 1,92 |
New generation — First-5 total
| Stated confidence | Settled trends | Stated (avg) | Realized | Avg odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 53-56% | 23 | 53,5% | 47,8% | @ 1,89 |
New generation — Run line
| Stated confidence | Settled trends | Stated (avg) | Realized | Avg odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 53-56% | 11 | 54,5% | 72,7% | @ 1,89 |
| 56-60% | 23 | 58,1% | 47,8% | @ 1,63 |
| ≥ 60% | 66 | 64,4% | 69,7% | @ 1,66 |
New generation — First inning (NRFI/YRFI)
| Stated confidence | Settled trends | Stated (avg) | Realized | Avg odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 53-56% | 79 | 54,3% | 41,8% | @ 1,86 |
| 56-60% | 61 | 57,4% | 52,5% | @ 1,83 |
| ≥ 60% | 19 | 62,0% | 52,6% | @ 1,74 |
| Date | Game | Market | Trend | Stated prob. | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09 | HOU @ TBR4–14 | RLRun line | HOU +1.5 | 58,9% | @ 1,54 | Lost |
| 13/09 | CLE @ MIN9–2 | RLRun line | CLE +1.5 | 69,3% | @ 1,52 | Won |
| 13/09 | CIN @ MIL4–3 | RLRun line | CIN +1.5 | 64,7% | @ 1,79 | Won |
| 13/09 | LAD @ MIA4–6 | RLRun line | MIA +1.5 | 74,5% | @ 1,72 | Won |
| 13/09 | COL @ DET1–8 | RLRun line | COL +1.5 | 66,0% | @ 1,73 | Lost |
| 13/09 | KCR @ BOS1–4 | RLRun line | BOS -1.5 | 54,2% | @ 2,25 | Won |
| 13/09 | PHI @ ATL9–4 | RLRun line | PHI +1.5 | 59,2% | @ 1,56 | Won |
| 13/09 | TEX @ ARI7–6 | RLRun line | TEX +1.5 | 60,8% | @ 1,55 | Won |
| 13/09 | LAD @ MIA4–6 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Aucun run en 1ʳᵉ manche (NRFI) | 53,0% | @ 1,89 | Won |
| 12/09 | HOU @ TBR2–3 | IARun line | HOU +1.5 | 58,8% | @ 1,60 | Won |
| 12/09 | CHW @ STL6–5 | IARun line | CHW +1.5 | 64,0% | @ 1,45 | Won |
| 12/09 | LAD @ MIA3–4 | IARun line | MIA +1.5 | 52,6% | @ 1,88 | Won |
| 12/09 | PIT @ CHC3–4 | IARun line | PIT +1.5 | 58,8% | @ 1,56 | Won |
| 12/09 | PHI @ ATL2–12 | IARun line | PHI +1.5 | 70,7% | @ 1,58 | Lost |
| 12/09 | TEX @ ARI6–2 | IARun line | TEX +1.5 | 47,4% | @ 1,57 | Won |
| 12/09 | LAA @ WSN5–6 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Aucun run en 1ʳᵉ manche (NRFI) | 58,8% | @ 1,87 | Lost |
| 12/09 | BAL @ TOR3–7 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Aucun run en 1ʳᵉ manche (NRFI) | 60,1% | @ 1,79 | Lost |
| 12/09 | HOU @ TBR2–3 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Aucun run en 1ʳᵉ manche (NRFI) | 54,7% | @ 1,78 | Lost |
| 12/09 | SDP @ SFG7–6 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Aucun run en 1ʳᵉ manche (NRFI) | 53,1% | @ 1,85 | Lost |
| 12/09 | CIN @ MIL9–13 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Au moins 1 run en 1ʳᵉ manche (YRFI) | 56,4% | @ 1,97 | Won |
| 12/09 | PIT @ CHC3–4 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Aucun run en 1ʳᵉ manche (NRFI) | 58,0% | @ 1,92 | Lost |
| 12/09 | PHI @ ATL2–12 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Aucun run en 1ʳᵉ manche (NRFI) | 62,9% | @ 1,83 | Lost |
| 12/09 | SEA @ OAK19–1 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Aucun run en 1ʳᵉ manche (NRFI) | 57,2% | @ 1,94 | Lost |
| 12/09 | SEA @ OAK19–1 | FTGame total | Under 9.5 | 53,3% | @ 1,96 | Lost |
| 12/09 | BAL @ TOR3–7 | RLRun line | BAL +1.5 | 59,3% | @ 1,52 | Lost |
| 12/09 | HOU @ TBR2–3 | RLRun line | HOU +1.5 | 55,9% | @ 1,58 | Won |
| 12/09 | CHW @ STL6–5 | RLRun line | STL -1.5 | 53,7% | @ 2,90 | Lost |
| 12/09 | CLE @ MIN3–4 | RLRun line | MIN +1.5 | 68,7% | @ 1,59 | Won |
| 12/09 | LAD @ MIA3–4 | RLRun line | MIA +1.5 | 70,8% | @ 1,97 | Won |
| 12/09 | PIT @ CHC3–4 | RLRun line | PIT +1.5 | 67,8% | @ 1,55 | Won |
| 12/09 | PHI @ ATL2–12 | RLRun line | PHI +1.5 | 64,3% | @ 1,52 | Lost |
| 12/09 | TEX @ ARI6–2 | RLRun line | TEX +1.5 | 62,6% | @ 1,56 | Won |
| 12/09 | CHW @ STL6–5 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Aucun run en 1ʳᵉ manche (NRFI) | 59,1% | @ 1,92 | Won |
| 12/09 | CLE @ MIN3–4 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Aucun run en 1ʳᵉ manche (NRFI) | 55,9% | @ 1,92 | Won |
| 12/09 | TEX @ ARI6–2 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Au moins 1 run en 1ʳᵉ manche (YRFI) | 55,1% | @ 1,95 | Lost |
| 11/09 | LAA @ WSN3–4 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Aucun run en 1ʳᵉ manche (NRFI) | 55,8% | @ 1,76 | Lost |
| 11/09 | CHW @ STL3–7 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Au moins 1 run en 1ʳᵉ manche (YRFI) | 56,6% | @ 1,99 | Won |
| 11/09 | NYM @ NYY4–6 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Aucun run en 1ʳᵉ manche (NRFI) | 59,5% | @ 1,80 | Lost |
| 11/09 | CLE @ MIN5–2 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Aucun run en 1ʳᵉ manche (NRFI) | 54,7% | @ 1,71 | Won |
| 11/09 | CIN @ MIL0–20 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Au moins 1 run en 1ʳᵉ manche (YRFI) | 56,2% | @ 1,93 | Won |
| 11/09 | LAD @ MIA6–2 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Aucun run en 1ʳᵉ manche (NRFI) | 53,0% | @ 1,68 | Won |
| 11/09 | KCR @ BOS3–2 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Au moins 1 run en 1ʳᵉ manche (YRFI) | 56,3% | @ 1,94 | Won |
| 11/09 | PHI @ ATL5–6 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Aucun run en 1ʳᵉ manche (NRFI) | 61,0% | @ 1,71 | Lost |
| 11/09 | SEA @ OAK5–6 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Au moins 1 run en 1ʳᵉ manche (YRFI) | 57,1% | @ 1,79 | Won |
| 11/09 | SEA @ OAK5–6 | FTGame total | Under 10.0 | 53,9% | @ 1,93 | Lost |
| 11/09 | LAA @ WSN3–4 | F5First-5 total | Under 4.0 | 53,0% | @ 1,96 | Won |
| 11/09 | LAA @ WSN3–4 | RLRun line | LAA +1.5 | 59,7% | @ 1,62 | Won |
| 11/09 | HOU @ TBR1–3 | RLRun line | HOU +1.5 | 57,2% | @ 1,70 | Lost |
| 11/09 | SDP @ SFG7–5 | RLRun line | SFG +1.5 | 66,7% | @ 1,75 | Lost |
| 11/09 | CLE @ MIN5–2 | RLRun line | MIN +1.5 | 72,5% | @ 1,60 | Lost |
| 11/09 | CIN @ MIL0–20 | RLRun line | CIN +1.5 | 54,1% | @ 1,81 | Lost |
| 11/09 | PIT @ CHC2–12 | RLRun line | PIT +1.5 | 67,3% | @ 1,80 | Lost |
| 11/09 | KCR @ BOS3–2 | RLRun line | BOS -1.5 | 63,3% | @ 2,09 | Lost |
| 11/09 | PHI @ ATL5–6 | RLRun line | PHI +1.5 | 60,3% | @ 1,70 | Won |
| 11/09 | BAL @ TOR7–4 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Au moins 1 run en 1ʳᵉ manche (YRFI) | 53,4% | @ 2,02 | Won |
| 11/09 | HOU @ TBR1–3 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Aucun run en 1ʳᵉ manche (NRFI) | 57,9% | @ 1,81 | Won |
| 11/09 | SDP @ SFG7–5 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Au moins 1 run en 1ʳᵉ manche (YRFI) | 53,3% | @ 2,11 | Won |
| 11/09 | LAA @ WSN3–4 | IARun line | LAA +1.5 | 58,8% | @ 1,63 | Won |
| 11/09 | HOU @ TBR1–3 | IARun line | HOU +1.5 | 58,8% | @ 1,76 | Lost |
| 11/09 | SDP @ SFG7–5 | IARun line | SFG +1.5 | 58,8% | @ 1,74 | Lost |
| 11/09 | CLE @ MIN5–2 | IARun line | MIN +1.5 | 58,8% | @ 1,61 | Lost |
| 11/09 | CIN @ MIL0–20 | IARun line | CIN +1.5 | 58,8% | @ 1,81 | Lost |
| 11/09 | PIT @ CHC2–12 | IARun line | PIT +1.5 | 61,9% | @ 1,84 | Lost |
| 11/09 | KCR @ BOS3–2 | IARun line | KCR +1.5 | 58,8% | @ 1,86 | Won |
| 11/09 | PHI @ ATL5–6 | IARun line | PHI +1.5 | 58,8% | @ 1,72 | Won |
| 10/09 | PIT @ CHW2–0 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Aucun run en 1ʳᵉ manche (NRFI) | 54,1% | @ 1,75 | Won |
| 10/09 | TEX @ SEA3–4 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Aucun run en 1ʳᵉ manche (NRFI) | 56,7% | @ 1,78 | Won |
| 10/09 | HOU @ PHI2–1 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Aucun run en 1ʳᵉ manche (NRFI) | 53,8% | @ 1,91 | Won |
| 10/09 | COL @ NYY3–10 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Au moins 1 run en 1ʳᵉ manche (YRFI) | 53,0% | @ 1,88 | Won |
| 09/09 | STL @ SFG6–7 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Au moins 1 run en 1ʳᵉ manche (YRFI) | 58,7% | @ 1,96 | Won |
| 09/09 | WSN @ SDP2–9 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Au moins 1 run en 1ʳᵉ manche (YRFI) | 55,7% | @ 1,87 | Lost |
| 09/09 | HOU @ PHI7–11 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Aucun run en 1ʳᵉ manche (NRFI) | 60,8% | @ 1,81 | Won |
| 09/09 | COL @ NYY1–6 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Au moins 1 run en 1ʳᵉ manche (YRFI) | 63,2% | @ 1,71 | Lost |
| 09/09 | CHC @ MIL6–8 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Aucun run en 1ʳᵉ manche (NRFI) | 54,8% | @ 1,76 | Lost |
| 09/09 | ARI @ KCR2–5 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Au moins 1 run en 1ʳᵉ manche (YRFI) | 66,0% | @ 1,81 | Lost |
| 09/09 | TEX @ SEA2–3 | IARun line | TEX +1.5 | 61,9% | @ 1,65 | Won |
| 09/09 | TBR @ ATL7–2 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Aucun run en 1ʳᵉ manche (NRFI) | 54,1% | @ 1,98 | Won |
| 09/09 | STL @ SFG6–7 | IARun line | SFG +1.5 | 58,8% | @ 1,63 | Won |
| 09/09 | TEX @ SEA2–3 | F5First-5 total | Under 4.5 | 53,0% | @ 1,89 | Won |
| 09/09 | CHC @ MIL6–8 | IARun line | CHC +1.5 | 47,6% | @ 1,54 | Lost |
| 09/09 | HOU @ PHI7–11 | F5First-5 total | Under 4.5 | 53,3% | @ 1,82 | Lost |
| 09/09 | CIN @ LAD1–14 | IARun line | LAD -1.5 | 58,8% | @ 1,82 | Won |
| 09/09 | CHC @ MIL6–8 | F5First-5 total | Under 4.0 | 53,3% | @ 1,83 | Lost |
| 09/09 | PIT @ CHW4–2 | IARun line | PIT +1.5 | 64,0% | @ 1,57 | Won |
| 09/09 | NYM @ MIA15–14 | F5First-5 total | Under 5.0 | 53,1% | @ 1,88 | Lost |
| 09/09 | LAA @ BOS6–4 | IARun line | LAA +1.5 | 52,6% | @ 1,93 | Won |
| 09/09 | TOR @ OAK0–2 | F5First-5 total | Under 5.5 | 53,7% | @ 1,88 | Won |
| 09/09 | TBR @ ATL7–2 | IARun line | TBR +1.5 | 61,9% | @ 1,52 | Won |
| 09/09 | TEX @ SEA2–3 | RLRun line | TEX +1.5 | 66,2% | @ 1,61 | Won |
| 09/09 | STL @ SFG6–7 | RLRun line | SFG +1.5 | 63,2% | @ 1,64 | Won |
| 09/09 | CHC @ MIL6–8 | RLRun line | CHC +1.5 | 61,0% | @ 1,54 | Lost |
| 09/09 | PIT @ CHW4–2 | RLRun line | PIT +1.5 | 61,5% | @ 1,62 | Won |
| 09/09 | TBR @ ATL7–2 | RLRun line | TBR +1.5 | 61,8% | @ 1,52 | Won |
| 08/09 | TEX @ SEA10–5 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Aucun run en 1ʳᵉ manche (NRFI) | 53,2% | @ 1,85 | Lost |
| 08/09 | CHC @ MIL3–4 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Aucun run en 1ʳᵉ manche (NRFI) | 57,3% | @ 1,70 | Lost |
| 08/09 | NYM @ MIA7–5 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Aucun run en 1ʳᵉ manche (NRFI) | 53,3% | @ 1,85 | Lost |
| 08/09 | PIT @ CHW9–3 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Aucun run en 1ʳᵉ manche (NRFI) | 53,3% | @ 1,83 | Lost |
| 08/09 | LAA @ BOS6–1 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Aucun run en 1ʳᵉ manche (NRFI) | 60,2% | @ 1,75 | Won |
| 08/09 | CHC @ MIL3–4 | F5First-5 total | Under 4.0 | 53,0% | @ 1,85 | Won |
| 08/09 | ARI @ KCR5–3 | F5First-5 total | Under 5.0 | 53,1% | @ 1,84 | Won |
| 08/09 | TEX @ SEA10–5 | RLRun line | TEX +1.5 | 64,2% | @ 1,56 | Won |
| 08/09 | HOU @ PHI6–5 | RLRun line | HOU +1.5 | 57,4% | @ 1,60 | Won |
| 08/09 | COL @ NYY3–5 | RLRun line | NYY -1.5 | 56,0% | @ 1,70 | Won |
| 08/09 | NYM @ MIA7–5 | RLRun line | NYM +1.5 | 59,0% | @ 1,52 | Won |
| 08/09 | ARI @ KCR5–3 | RLRun line | KCR +1.5 | 75,8% | @ 1,65 | Lost |
| 08/09 | LAA @ BOS6–1 | RLRun line | LAA +1.5 | 61,0% | @ 1,59 | Won |
| 08/09 | TEX @ SEA10–5 | IARun line | TEX +1.5 | 58,8% | @ 1,55 | Won |
| 08/09 | TBR @ ATL7–1 | RLRun line | TBR +1.5 | 61,1% | @ 1,49 | Won |
| 08/09 | HOU @ PHI6–5 | IARun line | HOU +1.5 | 58,8% | @ 1,58 | Won |
| 08/09 | CLE @ BAL9–5 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Au moins 1 run en 1ʳᵉ manche (YRFI) | 53,3% | @ 1,98 | Won |
| 08/09 | COL @ NYY3–5 | IARun line | NYY -1.5 | 58,8% | @ 1,69 | Won |
| 08/09 | NYM @ MIA7–5 | IARun line | NYM +1.5 | 63,4% | @ 1,49 | Won |
| 08/09 | CIN @ LAD2–3 | IARun line | LAD -1.5 | 64,0% | @ 1,74 | Lost |
| 08/09 | ARI @ KCR5–3 | IARun line | KCR +1.5 | 61,9% | @ 1,65 | Lost |
| 08/09 | LAA @ BOS6–1 | IARun line | LAA +1.5 | 64,0% | @ 1,58 | Won |
| 08/09 | TBR @ ATL7–1 | IARun line | TBR +1.5 | 68,0% | @ 1,49 | Won |
| 07/09 | ATL @ PHI0–1 | RLRun line | ATL +1.5 | 54,7% | @ 1,72 | Won |
| 07/09 | NYM @ MIA9–4 | RLRun line | NYM +1.5 | 60,0% | @ 1,58 | Won |
| 07/09 | STL @ SFG4–5 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Aucun run en 1ʳᵉ manche (NRFI) | 54,6% | @ 1,80 | Lost |
| 07/09 | ATL @ PHI0–1 | I1First inning (NRFI/YRFI) | Aucun run en 1ʳᵉ manche (NRFI) | 58,7% | @ 1,83 | Won |
Frequently asked questions
What is the “stated probability”?
The calibrated probability the model gave its trend at pick time. Our transparency commitment: over time, a zone stated at 56% must win ~56% of the time — this page lets you verify it.
Why publish losing trends?
Because a complete record is the only honest one. Every trend is frozen at pick time and settled against the final score, no filtering.
When does a trend become an official pick?
When its confidence zone has proven — in a two-season backtest AND live — that the stated rate is realized at a price that pays it. Official MLB picks follow those validated zones.
