Power Play & Penalty Kill: Special Teams That Make the Difference in NHL

Tight game. Tied 2-2 in the 3rd period.

A penalty is called. Your team gets a Power Play.

Is that good news? It depends entirely on the quality of their PP... and the opponent's PK.

In the NHL, roughly 20-25% of all goals are scored on the power play or while shorthanded. Special teams are not a minor detail — they can decide a game. And for bettors, it's a variable the public often misjudges.

The Basics: PP and PK

The Power Play (PP)

The Power Play is when a team plays with a man advantage (typically 5-on-4) after the opposing team takes a penalty.

Minor penalty = 2 minutes of PP
Major penalty = 5 minutes of PP
Double minor  = 4 minutes of PP

The Penalty Kill (PK)

The Penalty Kill is the opposite: the team playing shorthanded must defend during the penalty.

Successful PK = No goal allowed during the penalty
Failed PK     = Goal allowed (penalty ends if minor)

Key Metrics

Metric	Formula	What It Measures
PP%	PP Goals / PP Opportunities	Offensive efficiency with the man advantage
PK%	1 - (PK Goals Against / PK Opportunities)	Defensive efficiency while shorthanded

Example: - 25 PP goals on 120 opportunities = 20.8% PP% - 18 goals allowed on 115 PK opportunities = 84.3% PK%

NHL Benchmarks

Power Play

PP%	Interpretation	Approximate Rank
> 25%	Elite	Top 5 NHL
22-25%	Very Good	Top 10
19-22%	Above Average	11-20
16-19%	Below Average	21-28
< 16%	Weak	Bottom 4

The NHL average typically sits around 20%.

Penalty Kill

PK%	Interpretation	Approximate Rank
> 84%	Elite	Top 5 NHL
81-84%	Very Good	Top 10
78-81%	Above Average	11-20
75-78%	Below Average	21-28
< 75%	Weak	Bottom 4

The NHL average typically sits around 80%.

The Gap Between Extremes

Team Profile	PP%	PK%	Description
Complete Elite	26%	85%	Advantage in every situation
PP Dominant	28%	77%	Dangerous on PP, vulnerable on PK
PK Dominant	17%	86%	Defensive, weak PP offense
Weak Across the Board	15%	74%	Structural problem

Impact on Scoring

How Many PP/PK per Game?

Metric	NHL Average
Penalties per team/game	3.0-3.5
PP minutes per team/game	6-7 minutes
PP opportunities per team/game	2.8-3.2

Special Teams Goals

In a typical game:

NHL average total: ~6.0 goals
5v5 goals:         ~4.5 (75%)
PP/PK goals:       ~1.5 (25%)

A quarter of all goals come from special teams. That's massive.

Impact on the Total

PP% Team A	PK% Team B	Impact on Team A Goals
Elite (26%)	Weak (75%)	+0.4 to +0.6 goals
Elite (26%)	Elite (85%)	Neutral
Weak (15%)	Weak (75%)	Slight +
Weak (15%)	Elite (85%)	-0.2 to -0.3 goals

The PP vs opposing PK matchup determines special teams scoring.

Analyzing the PP in Depth

Beyond PP%

Raw PP% doesn't tell the whole story. Also look at:

Metric	What It Reveals
PP xGF/60	Quality of chances created on the PP
PP Shots/60	Shot volume on the PP
PP HDCF/60	High-danger chances on the PP
PP Sh%	Conversion rate (luck vs skill)

The "Lucky" vs "Unlucky" PP

PP%	PP xGF/60	Diagnosis
28%	High	Genuinely elite PP
28%	Average	Lucky PP, regression likely
16%	High	Unlucky PP, improvement likely
16%	Low	Genuinely weak PP

Example: A team with a 28% PP% but average xGF/60 has likely been converting at an unsustainably high Sh%. Regression is coming.

Components of a Good PP

Element	Importance
Zone entry	Critical — no PP without possession
Puck movement	Creates openings
One-timers	Most efficient shot type
Net-front presence	Screens, rebounds, deflections
Puck retrievals	Extends PP possession

A team with great shooters but poor zone entries will have a frustrating PP.

Analyzing the PK in Depth

Beyond PK%

Metric	What It Reveals
PK xGA/60	Quality of chances allowed on the PK
PK Shots Against/60	Pressure absorbed
PK HDCA/60	Danger allowed
PK Sv%	Goaltender performance on the PK

The "Lucky" vs "Unlucky" PK

PK%	PK xGA/60	Diagnosis
86%	Low	Genuinely elite PK
86%	High	Lucky PK (goalie bailing them out)
74%	Low	Unlucky PK
74%	High	Genuinely weak PK

Components of a Good PK

Element	Importance
Pressure on puck carrier	Forces turnovers
Solid box formation	Protects the slot
Shot blocking	Reduces goaltender workload
Clears	Kills time
Confirmed starter	Last line of defense, crucial

An aggressive PK that blocks a lot of shots can post a strong PK% even with an average goaltender.

The PP vs PK Matchup

The Matchup Matrix

Special teams scoring depends on the matchup between one team's PP and the opponent's PK:

PP Team A	PK Team B	Expected PP Goals (~3 opportunities)
26%	75%	~0.9-1.0
26%	85%	~0.6-0.7
20%	80%	~0.5-0.6
15%	75%	~0.5
15%	85%	~0.3-0.4

How to Use It

To estimate special teams goals:

Estimated PP Goals Team A = PP Opportunities x (PP% A + (100 - PK% B)) / 2 / 100

Simplified example: - Team A: PP% 24% - Team B: PK% 78% (so 22% goals allowed rate) - Average: (24% + 22%) / 2 = 23% - Over 3 opportunities: 3 x 0.23 = 0.69 expected goals

Penalties: The Forgotten Factor

Penalty Volume Matters

A team that takes a lot of penalties: - Gives the opponent more PP opportunities - Spends more time on the PK - Gets exposed even with a good PK

Penalties/Game	Impact
< 2.5	Disciplined, few PKs to handle
2.5-3.5	Average
> 3.5	Undisciplined, lots of time shorthanded

The Penalty Differential

Penalties Taken	Penalties Drawn	PP Differential
2.5	3.5	+1.0 (PP advantage)
3.5	2.5	-1.0 (disadvantage)
3.0	3.0	Neutral

A disciplined team that draws a lot of penalties has a structural advantage in special teams.

Identifying Undisciplined Teams

Signal	What It Indicates
High PIM/game	Takes lots of penalties
3rd period penalties	Lack of discipline under pressure
Penalties when trailing	Frustration leads to bad decisions

Betting Over against an undisciplined team facing an elite PP can be a profitable value bet.

Using PP/PK for Betting

Strategy #1: The Special Teams Differential

Calculate the net advantage:

Net Advantage = (PP% A - Avg) + (PK% A - Avg) - (PP% B - Avg) - (PK% B - Avg)

Net Advantage	Interpretation
> +10%	Major special teams edge
+5% to +10%	Clear advantage
-5% to +5%	Balanced
< -5%	Disadvantage

Strategy #2: Elite PP vs Weak PK = Over

The most explosive combination:

Team A: PP% 26%+ (elite)
Team B: PK% < 77% (weak)

-> Team A will score on the PP
-> Over is potentially value

Strategy #3: Two Weak PKs = Over

If both teams have weak penalty kills:

PK% Team A: 76%
PK% Team B: 75%

-> Both teams will score on the PP
-> +0.5 to +1.0 goal on the total

Strategy #4: Two Elite PKs = Under

Conversely:

PK% Team A: 85%
PK% Team B: 84%

-> Few special teams goals
-> Under is potentially value

Strategy #5: Fading the Lucky PP

A team with: - High PP% (25%+) - Average PP xGF/60

Will regress. Their PP goals will decrease.

Signal: PP% >> PP xG%
Action: Under on their games mid-term

Recent Trends

Why You Should Look at the Last 10-15 Games

Special teams can shift rapidly: - Injury to a key PP player - Strategy change - Newly acquired player

PP% Last 10	PP% Season	Signal
30%	22%	PP on fire
12%	22%	PP in a slump
22%	22%	Stable

Example

Team	PP% Season	PP% Last 10	Diagnosis
Edmonton	26.5%	32.0%	McDavid on fire
Chicago	18.2%	11.5%	PP in crisis

Edmonton right now will score even more on the PP than usual.

Key Players

The Importance of Stars on the PP

The PP is often dominated by the best players:

Player Type	PP Impact
Sniper (Ovechkin, Matthews)	One-timers
Playmaker (McDavid, Draisaitl)	Distribution
Offensive defenseman (Makar, Fox)	PP quarterback
Net-front (Kreider, Tkachuk)	Deflections, rebounds

Checking for Absences

If a key PP player is out:

Absent	Impact on PP
Primary sniper	-3% to -5% PP%
Quarterback defenseman	-2% to -4% PP%
Playmaker	-2% to -3% PP%

Example: If Makar is injured, Colorado's PP (often top 5) becomes far less threatening.

Full Example: Analysis Using PP/PK

The Game

Oilers @ Blackhawks — February 1, 2026

The Data

Team	PP%	PK%	Penalties/Game	xGF/60 PP	xGA/60 PK
Edmonton	27.5%	79.2%	2.8	High	Average
Chicago	16.8%	74.5%	3.8	Low	High

The Analysis

Edmonton: - Elite PP (27.5%) — McDavid, Draisaitl firing on all cylinders - Decent PK (79.2%) — not a liability - Disciplined (2.8 penalties/game) - Clear special teams advantage

Chicago: - Weak PP (16.8%) — lack of talent - Very weak PK (74.5%) — consistently leaking goals - Undisciplined (3.8 penalties/game) - Major disadvantage

The Matchup

Edmonton PP (27.5%) vs Chicago PK (74.5%)
-> Edmonton will get ~3-4 PP opportunities
-> Edmonton will score 0.8-1.2 PP goals

Chicago PP (16.8%) vs Edmonton PK (79.2%)
-> Chicago will get ~2-3 PP opportunities
-> Chicago will score 0.3-0.5 PP goals

PP/PK differential: +0.5 to +0.7 goals for Edmonton

Impact on the Total

5v5 estimate:                    ~5.0 goals
Special teams adjustment:        +0.5 to +0.8 goals
(Edmonton will score on PP, Chicago will allow)

Estimated total: ~5.5 to 5.8 goals

The Bookmaker Line

Total: O/U 6.5
Over:  1.88
Under: 1.94

The Verdict

• Our estimate: 5.5-5.8 goals
• Line: 6.5 goals
• Slight Under lean despite Edmonton's PP advantage

The market may have overestimated the offensive potential of this game. Edmonton's edge doesn't guarantee a 7-4 shootout.

Alternative: Edmonton -1.5 (puck line) given their overall superiority.

Where to Find PP/PK Stats

Free Sources

Source	URL	Data
NHL.com	nhl.com/stats	PP%, PK%, rankings
Natural Stat Trick	naturalstattrick.com	xGF/60, xGA/60 PP/PK
Hockey Reference	hockey-reference.com	Historical PP/PK
MoneyPuck	moneypuck.com	Advanced analytics

Key Columns

Column	Meaning
PP%	Power Play Percentage
PK%	Penalty Kill Percentage
PP GF	Power Play Goals For
PK GA	Penalty Kill Goals Against
PP Opp	Power Play Opportunities
PIM/GP	Penalty Minutes per Game

How ProbWin Integrates PP/PK

Our NHL model analyzes special teams in depth:

1. Season PP% and PK% for each team
2. Recent trends (last 10-15 games)
3. PP xGF/60 and PK xGA/60 (quality vs outcome)
4. PP vs opposing PK matchup
5. Penalty differential (discipline)
6. Key PP/PK player absences
7. Integration into the total estimate

Special teams account for ~25% of all scoring. We model them explicitly.

Check out our NHL picks to see this analysis in action.

Summary: PP and PK in 7 Points

#	Key Takeaway
1	~25% of goals come from special teams
2	Average PP% ~20%, average PK% ~80%
3	Cross-reference PP vs opposing PK to estimate goals
4	Elite PP vs weak PK = potential Over
5	Undisciplined team = more time shorthanded
6	Check for key PP player absences
7	PP%/PK% can be lucky — look at xGF/xGA

Next Step

You now have a solid grasp of special teams. There's one more key contextual factor to explore: playing at home vs on the road.

Discover Home Ice Advantage — how playing at home impacts performance and how it varies across teams and situations.